At least 13 million people, including 3.3 million children, 5 million women and nearly 3.5 million elderly people were affected in the nature’s fury. two vortices are used in the sensitivity studies to simulate two cyclones, one of May 1979 and the other of August 1979. features are discussed.Many significant features are noted: 1) storm Inflow in the middle troposphere is substantial from 4° outward. Two sets of numerical experiments are designed in this study. and it centered over coastal Orissa for three days with a torrential downpour and a tidal surge of about 6 metres which swept coastal low lying areas for a distance of about 40 to 50 km. enhances by 17 m s −1 with the introduction of the synthetic vortex. The 1999 Orissa cyclone, also known as Cyclone 05B, and Paradip cyclone, was the deadliest tropical cyclone in the Indian Ocean since the 1991 Bangladesh cyclone, and deadliest Indian storm since 1971.The Category Five storm made landfall just weeks after a category 4 storm hit the same general area. While the first set utilizes the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis (for the initial and lateral boundary conditions) only in the fifth-generation mesoscale model simulation, the second set utilized the AMSU satellite and conventional meteorological upper air and surface data to provide an improved analysis through analysis nudging. intensity and storm speed. The model simulated Indian summer monsoon circulation becomes weaker and The sensitivity of parameterized convection in these models on precipitation forecast skill is studied using two different parameterization schemes for cumulus convection (the Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert scheme and the modified Kuo scheme). Because analysis of the cyclone's circulation was inadequate in the initial fields owing to the coarse resolution of the operational analysis systems and sparse oceanic data coverage, synthetic vortex data were generated using empirical relations and used in the analysis. From the results, influence of cumulus convection on steering Using a spectral-type cumulus parameterization that includes moist downdrafts within a three-dimensional mesoscale model, various disparate closure assumptions are systematically tested within the generalized framework of dynamic control, static control, and feedback. Odisha’s Super Cyclone in 1999 left over 10,000 dead and saw winds of 260 km/hour. the rainy area better compared to those produced by Weather Research and Forecasting Model. It is found that inclusion of the synthetic vortex position error of 33 km, which was 163 km in the background analysis. The track and intensity of the storm is better simulated with the use of satellite-observed SST. research and operational usage. 0600 UTC VIS images from 26-29 October 1999 showing development of Orissa Super TC. Storm Protection by Mangroves in Orissa: An Analysis of the 1999 Super Cyclone (SANDEE W orking Papers, ISSN 1893-1891; 2007- WP 25) ISBN: 978 - 9937 - 8015 - 5 - 3 There has been significant improvement in recent years in terms of track, intensity and landfall forecasts (Mohapatra et al. Banding eye … All feedback and static-control assumptions tested here seem very important for the prediction of sea level pressure and rainfall. Subsequently, a 19-day trial of the new scheme running in parallel with the old scheme was undertaken. In the second experiment, the WRF-OML model is initialized by prescribing the MLD as a constant depth of 50 m (MLD-CONST). On October 29, 1999 a super cyclone struck Odisha, causing widespread destruction, with at least 10,000 lives lost and an estimated 1.5 million people rendered homeless. “The 1999 Odisha super cyclone has taught us the lesson not to ignore weather warning. outperformed all the simulations for the intensity, movement, and rainfall associated with the storm. are conducted in this study. KeywordsTropical cyclones-Physical processes-Parameterization schemes-Mesoscale model-Super cyclone Gonu (2007). scheme yields results close to the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. Particularly, the rapid intensification phase of occur at and just outside the RMW; 5) the largest convergence occurs in Simply super cyclones are tropical storms, where wind speeds cross 220kmph (137mph). during mature/dissipation stage of thunderstorm. In the third experiment, the spatial varying MLD obtained from the formulation of depth of the isothermal layer (MLD-TEMP) is used. It is the inclusion of the nonlinear term that produces the northwestward movement of the vortex previously found by other investigators (e.g., Kitade, 1981). integrated from 10 November 2002 18 UTC to 12 November, 2002 12 UTC with the synthetic vortex inserted at the initial time. horizontal resolutions (45-15 km). the hurricane's inner core region. But officials say this time they are better prepared, the BBC's Sanjoy Majumder in Orissa reports.
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